This is the tenth and last part of our series that analyzes the key deals that took place during the offseason of 2022. Instead of handing out grades, the focus of this series will be on analyzing the factors that drove the teams to make the changes. Let’s go into the details of a potential trade involving the Lakers and the Jazz.
On August 25, 2018, the Jazz made a deal with the Los Angeles Lakers to acquire Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson in exchange for Patrick Beverley. Beverley and Johnson are both on contracts that are about to expire, although Horton-Tucker has a player option for the 2023/24 season.
The Point of View of the Lakers
Marc Stein stated last week that the Lakers were hesitant to deal Horton-Tucker for Beverley because the front management was stressing youth and agility to remodel the squad following a 33-49 season. The club felt more comfortable making a win-now move after LeBron James signed an agreement.
Horton-Tucker is 21 and has tremendous potential. While he has some unique talents, he needed the ball in his hands to be efficient on offense, and with James and Westbrook on the team, those possibilities were limited.
Horton-poor Tucker’s three-point shooting (26.9% last season, 27.6% career) hurts the team’s offensive spacing. He has the tools to be a solid defender, but he’s inconsistent, which is typical for a young player.
The Lakers needed to add $75K to Horton-contract Tucker’s to make the transaction legitimate, so they added Johnson. He played with high intensity and effort last season, but he’s offensively restricted and defensively mediocre, so he won’t be missed.
Beverley, 34, is beyond his prime, but he’s a short-term boost and a better fit for the Lakers’ roster. He’s the kind of three-and-D guard who’s excelled with James throughout his career.
Beverley averages 8.8 ppg in his career. Despite his offensive limitations, he’s self-aware and doesn’t attempt to do too much, a vital characteristic in a role player.
Beverley is a career 37.8% shooter from outside the arc and 40% from the corners. He should aid with corner threes, which are vital for floor space.
Beverley has a 3.54-to-1 Assist-To-Turnover Ratio and is a Tough Offensive Rebounder
Beverley’s defense has helped him reach his 11th NBA season. Though he’s not as good as he once was, he’s still a significant backcourt boost on defense.
Beverley’s energy, effort, tenacity, and competitiveness are hard to measure yet effective. That’s why eight of his 10 clubs reached the playoffs.
Beverley’s hard-nosed (and often reckless) approach has resulted on many injuries, which must alarm the Lakers after James and Anthony Davis missed considerable time the previous two seasons. Beverley has played in 235 of 390 regular season games over the previous five years.
The Lakers will maintain Beverley’s Bird rights, meaning they may go over the salary ceiling to re-sign him next summer if all sides agree.
The View From Within the Jazz Genre
Prioritizing minutes for an elderly veteran when your team is rebuilding doesn’t make sense, and the Jazz learned that fast, dealing Beverley less than two months after acquiring him in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster.
Beverley is a guy that helps you win games, and the Jazz look to be wanting to lose as many games as possible next season to get Victor Wembanyama.
Taking a chance on young talent like Horton-Tucker makes sense (46th overall pick in 2019). Horton-Tucker is younger than some incoming rookies, including No. 14 selection Ochai Agbaji, whom the Jazz recently acquired in the Mitchell trade.
THT has special features, as described. 6’4″ and 234 pounds, he has a strong frame. His strength and 7’1″ wingspan enable him to accomplish things most players can’t.
Horton-Tucker may be a better player than Beverley, despite his bad fit with the Lakers. The Jazz hope giving him a greater role would bring forth his best, enabling them to reap long-term benefits.
Horton-Tucker isn’t a three-and-D guy, but the Lakers needed him to be. He can get into the lane with behind-the-backs, crossovers, and spin techniques. He’s good at adjusting tempo on the fly, a difficult ability.
A Specific Explanation from DunksAndThrees.com
Horton-Tucker is a decent but unspectacular athlete who can get to his spots, particularly around the basket. He shot 57% near the rim last season, which was in the 31st percentile of all players, according to DunksAndThrees.com. Horton-Tucker, a Chicago native like Beverley, plays with a physical edge and recklessness.
He has shown fledgling passing talent, particularly off the dribble, and may average five-plus assists for Utah, especially if Mike Conley is moved.
Horton-Tucker is a good off-ball cutter, something he showed off more while playing alongside Marc Gasol, a passing center who could open the floor.
Horton-Tucker has the physical tools to be productive, but he makes errors, particularly off the ball. He’s sluggish to rotate as a help defender and a tad reach-happy, but both are fixable mistakes.
Depending on how he performs next season, THT may take up his $11MM player option for ’23/24. If they want him, the Jazz holds his Bird rights.
Johnson, the seventh selection in 2015, hasn’t evolved into the player evaluators expected, and he won’t play much for Utah.
With the Mitchell contract, the Jazz will have 17 players on guaranteed agreements, and that number has to be lowered to 15 before the start of the regular season, so Johnson’s position is far from assured.
Horton-Tucker (-0.5) and Johnson (-0.2) had little influence on winning last season, according to Basketball-Reference. Beverley’s 1.7 VORP ranked 65th in the NBA.
Finishing Up
Beverley’s victory shares (4.1) are larger than THT and Johnson combined (2.9). Beverley’s +2.0 plus/minus ranked 68th in the NBA, while Horton-Tucker (-2.4) and Johnson (-1.2) were net negatives. I could go on, but you get the idea.
Considering the Jazz want to lose in ’22/23 and the Lakers want to win, it was a sensible deal for both sides.
