On Sunday 3 Teams With Less Than a 2% Chance of Won

Those NFL fans who felt that Sunday was a particularly wild day weren’t imagining things. It’s supported by data, so don’t doubt it.

Three times, underdog teams with less than a one-in-50 chance of winning pulled off the upset. Not to mention the Atlanta Falcons-Los Angeles Rams game, when the Falcons came back from a 28-3 deficit to get the ball deep in Rams territory while still behind by three scores (31-25).

After the Falcons made a comeback, Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey intercepted a throw from quarterback Marcus Mariota. On Sunday, there were many additional comebacks that also ended with victory.

The Dolphins, Jets, And Cardinals All Had Less Than A 2% Chance To Win On Sunday

The Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets, and the Arizona Cardinals all had a probability of winning their respective games on Sunday. That was lower than 2% according to Next Gen Stats at some time throughout the course of the games.

They were all victorious. According to Next Gen Stats, there had only been 17 games in the previous seven seasons in which teams that had attained a 98-percent win probability lost, but it occurred three times on Sunday alone. Because of this, victory probability charts turned out to be utterly insane.

Dolphins Come Back To Defeat The Ravens

It was in the fourth quarter when Miami staged their comeback and defeated Baltimore. Going into the final period, Baltimore had a 35-14 lead.

With just over 12 minutes remaining, Miami scored its first touchdown of the fourth quarter to take a tie into their own hands. The Ravens took the lead with a long field goal from Justin Tucker before the two-minute warning.

But the Dolphins responded with a touchdown pass from Tua Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle with just 14 seconds remaining. Five of the Ravens’ first seven drives resulted in touchdowns.

The Ravens’ quarterback, Lamar Jackson, had a perfect passer rating and 118 running yards at one point in the fourth quarter. The Ravens were defeated.

A Stunning Victory For The Jets Against The Browns

When compared to the other two comebacks, the Jets’ was the most shocking. With two minutes remaining, the Browns had already sealed the victory. At the two-minute warning, Nick Chubb scored from 12 yards out to give the Browns a 30-17 lead.

It didn’t seem to matter that the additional point wasn’t worth anything. According to ESPN Stats & Information, NFL teams have won 2,229 consecutive games while leading by at least 13 points in the last two minutes.

Chicago Bears’ 2001 victory against Cleveland Browns was the last time a team wasted such a large lead. There wasn’t much hope that the Jets would be the team to break the skid. This time, though, Joe Flacco completed a 66-yard touchdown pass to Corey Davis.

On Sunday 3 Teams With Less Than a 2% Chance of Won Post Image

Even with the changes to the rules, the Jets still needed to recover an onside kick. But that occurred because Browns receiver Amari Cooper botched a spinning onside kick. With 22 seconds remaining on the clock.

Rookie receiver Garrett Wilson took the ball straight downfield and scored a touchdown for the Jets. The Browns drove all the way down to their own 46-yard line with less than a minute remaining, giving themselves a chance at a field goal.

But Jacoby Brissett was picked off and the Jets went on to have one of their most improbable victories in team history.

The Cardinals Rally To Defeat The Raiders

In the first half against the Raiders of Las Vegas, the Cardinals looked terrible. They were behind by a score of 20-0 late in the third quarter. They entered the last stanza behind 23-7. Next Gen Stats show that Arizona’s Kyler Murray ran for 85.69 yards, scoring a score and then converting a two-point attempt with a crazy run.

Finishing Off

That should have been a warning of what was to come. The Cardinals were able to tie the game with another score on the last play of regulation and a two-point conversion (after being penalized for delay of game).

They were able to win the game with a fumble recovery return for a touchdown in overtime. Additionally, there was some historical significance associated with it. That nail-biter of a game would have dominated the conversation around the NFL on any other Sunday. It was just one of three incredible comebacks that occurred during Week 2.

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